Bangladesh is currently experiencing a severe political crisis. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who has led the country since 2009, resigned and fled the country amid massive protests. The Bangladesh Army has taken control of the country and has declared an interim government.
The crisis was triggered by a High Court order restoring 30% job quotas for descendants of freedom fighters. This decision caused fears among the unemployed population, particularly educated youths. According to NDTV, 18 million young people are unemployed in Bangladesh.

What escalated the tension was Sheikh Hasina refusing to address the protesters’ demands (who wanted the entire quota to be replaced by a merit-based system), calling them ‘Razakars’, a derogatory term for those who collaborated with the Pakistani Army during the 1971 War of Independence. This inflamed public anger and led to massive protests.
On August 4, violent clashes between protesters and government supporters erupted in Dhaka. It resulted in at least 98 deaths, including 14 policemen, and hundreds of injuries. Despite curfew and shutdown of mobile networks and internet connectivity, protestors stormed the Prime Minister’s palace and vandalised a statue of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, Hasina’s father and Bangladesh’s independence hero, reported CNN.

India, a close ally of Sheikh Hasina, is closely monitoring the situation in Bangladesh. The crisis has several potential implications for India. Here’s a look at some of them briefly:
Border Security.
Instability in Bangladesh could lead to an influx of refugees into India, particularly into its northeastern states, which share a long and porous border with Bangladesh. Earlier, insurgent groups who were active in the Northeast used to take sanctuary in Bangladesh. Under Hasina’s rule, Bangladesh was not allowed to be used by insurgent groups and India’s Northeastern border was relatively calm. Hasina’s absence could strain resources and create security challenges.

Regional Stability.
The departure of Hasina could lead to increased influence of radical elements like Jamaat-e-Islami in the interim government. Under her, there was moderate Islamic rule. Her exit gives entry to parties promoting radical Islam – like the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). This shift might open the door for Pakistan to regain a foothold in Bangladeshi politics, posing a threat to India’s security.
Economic Impact.
Trade between India and Bangladesh, particularly through the Petrapole land port, is likely to be disrupted. This could impact businesses and economic activities, given the significant trade volume between the two countries, reported Economic Times.

Strategic Concerns.
China’s potential to expand its influence in Bangladesh post-Hasina is a significant concern for India. A stronger Chinese presence in Bangladesh could strategically encircle India, with hostile or indifferent neighbours on multiple fronts, including China and Pakistan to the west and north, a communist-led Nepal, a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, and an anti-India Maldives.
Diplomatic Efforts.
India will need to engage in substantial diplomatic efforts to rebuild relations with the new regime in Dhaka. Addressing the growing anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh will be challenging. Under Hasina, India-Bangladesh diplomatic ties had strengthened. The two countries worked together on improving railway, road, and inland water connectivity, boosting security and border management, amplifying defence cooperation, and cooperating in the power and energy sector, reported Mint.

Logistical Challenges.
Transit and trans-shipment arrangements with Bangladesh are crucial for India’s northeastern states. Ensuring the continuity of these logistics agreements will be vital for maintaining supply chains and regional stability.
What are your views on what is happening in Bangladesh?